Cascadia Surgical — Demand Forecast Accuracy

Simulated data

Cascadia Surgical is a fictional brand and every number on this page is simulated; all KPIs units-weighted. It is a purpose-built synthetic portfolio with planted forecasting problems to find.

What to look for
  • A product family that’s been running over-forecast for a while
  • Three countries with bias well outside the normal range — two under, one over
  • A planning-system switch that made the forecast worse, not better
  • A planning system that reliably beats a do-nothing baseline
  • A supplier disruption that pulled three product lines under plan for a summer
  • A product line quietly drifting away from what was planned
  • A frozen annual plan losing to a strongly seasonal item
  • New-product launches the forecast under-shot
  • A product nearing end of life, declining faster than planned
  • A cluster of low-volume, erratic items no point forecast will ever nail

WMAPE 22.4% · lag 3 mo · 28 mo

  • Forecast
  • Actual

Forecast against actual units, month by month, at the demo’s default three-month lag. The smooth line is what was planned and the jagged one is what sold — the gap between them is the error every tile in the demo measures.

scope.json · 28 months · lag 3

Snapshot frozen 2026-07